People in Washington have been saying for weeks that the next round of presidential polls would be terrible. Not just bad, but very bad.
The findings are here now. And depending on who you ask, the data either backs up what critics have been saying for months or shows how divided America still is under Donald J. Trump’s second term as president.
It seems like the president knew what was going to happen. Even before the evidence was made public, Trump was ready to deal with it.
A President Who Is Always Under Stress
Donald Trump has shown that a presidency can be even louder, faster, and more combative the second time around, nine months into his second term.
He went back to work with a new sense of purpose from the first day. There were a lot of executive orders. People came and left from the cabinet. Trade deals changed overnight. There were more and more crackdowns on immigrants. The verbal fights with lawmakers and the media came back with full force.
His admirers thought that what he did showed that “America First” wasn’t just a slogan; it was something they did. For his critics, it felt like the problems that had weakened the country before were coming back.
When reporters questioned Trump if he planned to “tone it down,” he said something typical of him:
“You can’t fix a broken country by being kind. You may achieve it by yelling the truth louder than the lies.
It took courage. That was rude. It didn’t apologize. And it showed that Trump didn’t plan to change how he acted.
The president seemed sure of himself, but his staff knew that the polls were going down, no matter how many speeches and rallies he gave.
The Approval Rating That No One Can Ignore
The most recent national poll from YouGov finds that only 41% of people approve of Trump. More than half of Americans, 52%, now say he isn’t doing a good job.
That is a substantial decline from the start of his second term, when hope briefly pushed him over 50%. At that point, a lot of people who didn’t trust him believed his first steps toward fixing the economy were good. But then everything went wrong: trade wars, more tariffs, and fights with the media all the time. The hope was gone almost right away.
Republicans are even showing indications of danger. That percentage is five points lower than it was at the end of his first term, yet 82% still support him. For independents, things are much worse: only 32% agree, while more than two-thirds disagree.
No president should have those figures. They decide if the White House moves forward or stays the same.
Erosion on Trump’s property
The most surprising part about the polls is where the drop is happening. It’s not just in places where Democrats are in charge. It’s in places that used to be thought of as Trump’s base of support.
Support in Ohio has gone down from 57% to 48%.
In Iowa, it has gone down from 55% to 46%.
Trump’s approval ratings have slipped below 50% for the first time since 2019, even in Florida, which has traditionally been thought to be his fortress in elections.
People who live in the suburbs seem to be the most restless. A lot of people in the suburbs voted for Trump in 2024 without thinking about it, thinking he could bring the economy back to life. Now, many are questioning whether all the fighting is worth it.
“The pattern is clear,” said analyst Peter Hartwell. Voters wanted things to be in order. What they see is a conflict.
Trump said, “The polls are rigged.”
When Fox News asked Trump about his low approval ratings, he didn’t flinch. He said the data was “garbage from bad pollsters” and even poked fun of Fox.
He said, “I told Rupert Murdoch to hire a new pollster because this one is bad.”
He said again on Truth Social, “The fake news loves their fake polls.” People know the truth, though: the country is winning again, and they can feel it.
Trump thinks polls are just another method for the news to harm him. A lot of his fans feel that his refusal to give in makes them stay loyal.
Why Approval Ratings Matter
Still, experts say that the data should not be ignored. People care about more than just approval ratings. They change how politics function.
Elaine Berns, a historian, remarked, “When a president’s approval rating falls below 45%, members of his own party start to think differently.” “They are less willing to take risks for him, especially since the midterm elections are coming up.”
History shows that presidents who don’t get more than 45% of the vote usually lose a lot of seats in Congress during elections. That’s why Trump’s most recent numbers are making Republicans, including those who generally back him, uneasy.
What drives Americans crazy?
The poll also indicated what is making individuals on all sides of the political spectrum upset.
Some Republicans don’t like tariffs because they think they hurt the stock market and make things more expensive for consumers. More over one in three of them said this.
Tone and trust are more important to Democrats and independents.
62% said Trump “stokes division.”
55% said he “undermines the rule of law.”
Almost half said they “don’t believe what he says about the economy anymore.”
The numbers are going down even on topics where Trump used to be very popular, like crime, immigration, and trade.
The Split in the People
The people who favor Trump the most are still older, white men who didn’t go to college. This is the same people that helped him get back in charge.
But other groups are gradually losing faith in him.
72% of people under 30 don’t like what he’s done.
Black voters are quite unhappy, with 81% saying so.
63% of Latino voters don’t like it.
In 2024, Trump had made small gains with Hispanic men in states like Texas and Florida. But it seems like those gains are going away.
Democrats, on the other hand, aren’t doing so well. 39% of Americans like Kamala Harris, the Vice President, and 37% like Gavin Newsom, the Governor of California. People in America may be sick of Trump right now, but they haven’t picked someone else yet.
Trump’s Counter-Narrative: “We’re Winning”
Even though the data is awful, Trump isn’t backing down. Instead, he’s having more rallies in important states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona.
“They can print all the fake polls they want,” he told supporters in Pittsburgh. But here’s the truth: crime is going down, gas prices are going down, the border is growing stronger, and factories are coming back. “You see it with your own eyes.”
At one appearance, he even joked, “YouGov? I tell them, “You’re Wrong.”
The crowd cheered in agreement.
For years, Trump has used the same strategy: acting like the media and the establishment are against him. And it still works in politics.
Why He Isn’t Afraid of Polls
To understand why Trump is so stubborn, you need to look at his past with polls.
In 2015, experts said he would never win a primary.
They said he would never be elected president in 2016.
A lot of people thought his political career was gone when he lost the election again in 2020.
And in 2024, he astonished everyone by winning the White House again.
He often says to his fans, “They’ve always been wrong about me.” “Why should I believe them now?”
This isn’t arrogance for millions of people who support him, especially those who think the elites in Washington don’t care about them. It’s true.
What’s Next?
Trump’s campaign staff says that the polls are inaccurate. They think people are unhappy with the tone but happy with the results.
Chris LaCivita, a campaign consultant, stated, “The basics are strong.” “More jobs are being created, wages are going up, and inflation is going down.” “Feelings don’t change the truth.”
Even Republicans agree that low approval ratings can have bad effects. It can be hard to get lawmakers and voters to back you once they think you’re not popular.
Democrats, on the other hand, see a chance. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said not so long ago, “Trump’s approval ratings are going down for one simple reason: Americans are waking up to the damage his chaos is doing.”
The Bottom Line
The new polls should make the Trump administration pay attention. People don’t like the economy, don’t like his style of leadership, and don’t know if he can bring the country together.
But if history is any indicator, these types of things are good for Donald Trump. People have always told him he couldn’t do it, but he’s always found a way to prove them wrong.
He said, “The fake news says the numbers are down,” before stepping on Air Force One this week. I think things are becoming better in the United States. “We’re getting better, and the best is yet to come.”
We don’t know if those words are true or merely gossip yet. But one thing is for sure: Trump is hoping that religion will be more important than facts again.